Quantum advantage: why software makers think the tech is now competitive

“We don’t know,” said Michael Biercuk, CEO and founder of Q-CTRL, when asked which quantum hardware platform will win out in the long run. “Nobody knows. And anybody who tells you they know is selling you something.”

Alongside qubit counts, the competing approaches to building quantum machines – superconducting circuits, trapped ions, photonics and neutral atoms – have been debated for years, with no clear frontrunner emerging. Yet an Economist Impact webinar last week, held ahead of its Commercialising Quantum event in June, was notable for how little hardware featured.

“It’s not even clear that there will be just one winner,” added Ashley Montanaro, co-founder of Phasecraft. “It may be that there are multiple platforms. You use different ones for different applications.”

Elham Kashefi, chief scientist at the UK’s National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC), said the response has been to test rather than choose. The centre is developing testbeds to run applications across different platforms and assess performance in real-world conditions.

“It’s about benchmarking and validation,” she said. “We need to understand what works for which use case.”

Software defined

What is becoming clearer is the role quantum algorithms, error suppression, software tooling, and verification are now playing in shaping the industry, pushing for quantum utility and drawing in early customers.

Montanaro, for example, says that work on quantum algorithms is already mapping where advantage could emerge, from chemistry and materials to optimisation, even if the hardware is not yet ready to deliver it. He mentions working on “modelling a battery cathode” which replaced “months of lab work” and what this means to materials discovery and innovation.

Phasecraft, one of seven global finalists in the XPRIZE quantum applications challenge, is also working with the UK’s National Energy System Operator (NESO) on optimising energy networks, a sign of where early commercial interest is starting to form.

Montanaro is not alone here. Across the stack, companies are working on the layers that can move ahead of hardware.

For Biercuk, that means control. Q-CTRL focuses on error suppression, aiming to make today’s systems more stable and usable rather than waiting for a step change in hardware. At the software layer, firms such as Classiq are taking a different approach, building tools that sit above the hardware and allow developers to focus on applications.

“You want to get to a point where developers don’t need to think about the underlying system,” said Simon Fried, VP of communications at Classiq. “They should be able to define the problem and let the software handle the rest.”

Building commercial trust

But defining the problem is one thing. Knowing that the answer is correct is another.

For Kashefi, that remains one of the central challenges. As quantum systems become more complex, verifying their outputs becomes critical, particularly when classical comparison is no longer possible.

“We need ways to verify and validate the results,” she said. “Otherwise, you cannot build trust in the system.”

It’s a good point. Building trust is an industry-wide necessity, which is also starting to shape policy. The UK government’s recent £2bn quantum programme, with its focus on procurement and real-world deployment, has been widely welcomed by the panel as a step towards turning research strength into commercial use.

It is also a sign of how far the industry has come. Governments becoming customers, as Biercuk noted, “does not happen lightly.” There are experts advising governments behind the scenes, on where quantum technologies can have an impact and when.

That progress is already being measured in more practical terms. For Biercuk, the key test is whether quantum systems can compete with classical approaches.

“We are already seeing cases where quantum is competitive,” he said.

Competing with some of the world’s leading supercomputers marks a clear step forward. What comes next is continuation, and, if the industry delivers, acceleration. Materials science and energy systems are already emerging as early areas of demand, where even incremental improvements in modelling or optimisation can carry commercial value. Other sectors, including pharmaceuticals and logistics, are also cited as growing advocates of quantum computations.

“It’s about finding the problems where quantum can make a difference,” said Montanaro. “That’s where you’ll see it first.”